Effect of Ethnic Divisions and Constitutional Crises on Peace Reconciliation in Africa.Case of Somalia (2021-2024)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effects of ethnic divisions and constitutional crises on peace reconciliation in Africa, with a specific focus on Somalia between 2021 and 2024. The significance of this study lies in its potential to shape decision making processes and societal outcomes by directly addressing the research objectives and questions. The study was underpinned by the following theories: Development Theory, Political Theory and Conflict Transformation Theory. A descriptive survey design, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative characteristics was adopted. The sample was drawn from an adult Somali population of 8,720,512 using Yamane’s formula, resulting in a sample size of 400 individuals at a 95% confidence interval with a 5% margin of error. The completed questionnaires were picked after being appropriately and fully responded to. The data were analyzed using SPSS, and the results were presented in tables. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 21, summarized with descriptive statistics, and presented in frequency distribution tables. Cross-tabulation was used to determine the significance of linked variables at a threshold of 0.05. Likert scales measured perceptions on political stability and ethnic divisions in Somalia, with scores of more than 3 indicating agreement. Relationships between variables were assessed through multiple regression, ANOVA tests, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for comprehensive analysis. All ethical considerations were respected. The findings showed that, in the Model Summary, the R value of 0.251 indicates a weak positive correlation between clan-based divisions, constitutional crises, and peace reconciliation. The R Square value of 0.063 shows that only 6.3% of the variance in peace reconciliation can be explained by these predictors. Although this percentage is relatively low, it suggests that ethnic divisions and constitutional crises do have some influence on reconciliation efforts. The standard error of the estimate is 3.16412, which measures the typical deviation of actual reconciliation outcomes from the model’s predicted values. The ANOVA table further supports the significance of the model. The F-value of 25.564, with a significance level (p-value) of .000, indicates that the model is statistically significant, meaning that clan-based divisions and constitutional crises have a meaningful impact on peace reconciliation efforts in Somalia. In the Coefficients table, the unstandardized coefficient (B) for the constant is 18.074, which represents the expected value of peace reconciliation when the predictors are zero. The standardized coefficient (Beta) of 0.251 shows the relative strength of this relationship, and the t-value of 5.056, along with a p-value of .000, demonstrates that this predictor has a statistically significant impact on peace reconciliation. In sum, the analysis shows that while clan-based divisions and constitutional crises play a significant role in influencing peace reconciliation in Somalia, they only explain a small portion of the variance. This implies that other factors not included in the model may also be important in determining the success of reconciliation efforts. Nonetheless, the significant relationship between these variables highlights the need to address ethnic divisions and constitutional issues to improve peace building outcomes in Somalia. The studies recommends developing comprehensive peace building strategies, enhancing stakeholder engagement and inclusivity and conducting longitudinal