THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON RWANDA'S ECONOMY AND FOREIGN RELATIONS A CASE STUDY OF RWANDA CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY (RCAA), 2020-2024

Abstract

This research investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Rwanda's economy and foreign relations, focusing on the Rwanda Civil Aviation Authority (RCAA). It aimed to assess the effects of travel restrictions, economic downturn, and health and safety regulations. Theoretically this research considered three theories in particular assessing their assumptions and their relevance to this study under investigation, among them include; the Theory of Economic Shock and Recovery, the International Relations Theory and the Crisis Management Theory. A sample of 55 out of 64 RCAA employees was analyzed using both descriptive and correlational research designs, the sample size was determined using Slovin's formula of sample size determination, which is appropriate for calculating the required sample size with a known population and desired level of precision. The sampling for this research study employed a combination of purposive and simple random sampling techniques. with quantitative data examined through SPSS and qualitative data through thematic analysis. Findings show significant disruptions: border closures disrupted diplomatic ties (mean = 4.24, SD = 0.71), quarantine measures negatively impacted the economy (mean = 4.18, SD = 0.64), and flight cancellations hindered trade (mean = 4.18, SD = 0.69). GDP shrinkage (mean = 4.18, SD = 0.64), rising unemployment (mean = 4.15, SD = 0.61), and business closures (mean = 4.18, SD = 0.67) were reported. Health regulations increased operational costs (mean = 4.05, SD = 0.89) and reduced passenger traffic (mean = 4.03, SD = 0.82). Regression analysis revealed that economic downturn had a statistically significant impact (B = 0.086, t = 0.880, p = 0.020), while travel restrictions had a moderate effect (B = 0.096, t = 0.853, p = 0.095). Health and safety regulations had a less pronounced effect (B = 0.049, t = 0.476, p = 0.635). ANOVA results confirmed a substantial difference in impact with an F-statistic of 0.0972 (Sig. = .000). Correlation analysis showed strong positive relationships between travel restrictions, economic downturn, and health regulations (Pearson Correlation values r = .906, r = .910, r = .917, all significant at .000). Interviews corroborated these findings, highlighting severe revenue losses, decreased passenger traffic, and reduced cargo volume (mean values between 4.13 and 4.22). Foreign relations were strained with declines in foreign direct investment (mean = 4.13) and disrupted trade agreements. The study provides valuable insights for future policy-making and crisis management, benefiting policymakers, the aviation industry, and the academic community by enhancing Rwanda's economic resilience and international relations.